China's economy is more balanced between supply and demand in the first half of 2024 under the active policy props, with real GDP growth of 5.1% expected for the full year. China's economy continued its structural repair in the first half of the year, growing at a rate of 5.3% in the first quarter, significantly better than market expectations, before slowing down slightly in the second quarter. In the second half of the year, the foundation of economic repair is expected to be further consolidated with further policy efforts. On the supply side, industrial production is expected to grow steadily, and corporate profits will continue to recover. On the demand side, exports are expected to maintain the resilience, consumption growth rate moderate recovery, the structure of investment will still be differentiated. Infrastructure and manufacturing investment is expected to continue high growth, real estate investment decline is expected to marginal convergence. With the improvement of supply and demand pattern, inflation is expected to pick up moderately, and the annual nominal GDP growth rate may reach 5.3%.2024 In the first half of the year, the production and profit of fluorine chemical industry enterprises have been upward compared with the ring, and the profits of major listed companies have performed well, and the new production capacity on the supply side has continued to be released, but the growth rate of capacity placement has slowed down.
Fluorine chemical industry chain starting point fluorite, strategic mineral resources attribute value is still strengthened, in March the State Mine Safety Supervision Bureau issued a "notice on the development of special rectification of fluorite mine safety production", put forward to strengthen the management of the source, the development of a number of closure and withdrawal, consolidation and reorganization of a number of transformation and upgrading of a number of fluorite market from January to June this year, the market showed a tight balance between supply and demand, the annual average market price continued to break through the historical peak. Domestic fluorite powder supply resources shrink, imports increased significantly to make up for the domestic gap, especially Mongolia imports bright performance, imports accounted for more than 85%. 2024 January-June is expected to domestic production of about 2.3 million tons of fluorspar powder, down 20.68% compared with last year. 2024 January-June fluorspar powder market average price compared with 2023 year-on-year increase of 10.89%.
The four major product systems in the fluorine chemical industry chain are inorganic fluoride, fluorocarbon chemicals, fluorinated polymers and fluorinated fine chemicals. Inorganic fluoride such as aluminum fluoride, hydrogen fluoride basic raw materials by a single fluorite concentrate, sulfuric acid and other raw materials continue to rise as well as low-cost recycling of hydrogen fluoride producers continue to release the output of the industry's profits for a long time in the loss threshold, a large number of domestic hydrogen fluoride enterprises to choose the production of opportunities to seek micro-profits, the industry reshuffle and competition pattern further aggravated. Anhydrous hydrogen fluoride 2024 June capacity of 3.477 million tons, January-June production is expected to 998,000 tons, the effective start rate of about 57.4%, 2024 January-June average market price compared with 2023 rose 7.92%. Hydrogen fluoride as a fluorine materials industry can not be bypassed, the industry has not ended the road to involution, with fluorine resource advantage has become a very important rule of survival of chemical enterprises in recent years.
Fluoropolymer four main varieties of PTFE, PVDF, FEP, FKM, the first half of 2024, mainly due to the persistent increase in the supply side of the last two years, resulting in demand growth is far less than the supply of incremental imbalance, the market price is a continuation of the unilateral downward trend. PVDF market, for example, although the first half of 2024 production capacity remains about 210,000 tons, but the new planning is still more, can be said to be the industry's king of the volume of the king of the fierce competition for market share, the demand for delayed lead to the actual effective rate of operation to maintain at 3-4% or so. 2024 January-June, the average price of PVDF lithium market declined by 55% year-on-year. Fluoropolymer base products PTFE, hexafluoropropylene, FEP, FKM and other industries are also due to the rapid expansion of production capacity in the early stage, the current stage into the digestion of the game stage, market prices and industry profits are showing a downward trend.
Fluorine-containing fine chemicals mainly include fluorine-containing organic intermediates, fluorine-containing electronic chemicals, fluorine-containing surfactants, fluorine-containing fine chemicals for lithium batteries, fluorine-containing specialty gases and other categories, and the data show that the proportion of fluorine-containing fine chemicals in developed countries in the fluorine chemical industry is as high as 45% of the output value; China's fluorine-containing fine chemicals accounted for 27% of the output value of fluorine-containing fine chemicals. Lithium hexafluorophosphate, hydrofluoroethers, hexafluoropropylene oligomer and other fine products to see the market price continues to fall, some varieties of marginal profit loss, lithium hexafluorophosphate, for example, the average price of the market in January-June 2024 compared with January-June 2023 fell by 57% year-on-year. Capacity increased from 303,300 tons in 2023 to 328,000 tons, with a capacity growth rate of 8.14%, and the actual effective start rate dropped to near 40%. As for other fluorine-containing special gases, fluorine-containing intermediates, fluorine-containing pesticides and pharmaceuticals, they are also affected by the continuous de-stocking of agriculture as well as the imbalance between supply and demand, and the market downturn has not yet improved.
External stabilization of real estate, stabilization of foreign trade, consumption and other policy "combinations" in the first half of the sustained force, enhanced the expectations of economic stabilization. Looking ahead to the second half of the year, the continuous effect of these policies may further appear, providing support for stable economic growth. The fluorine chemical industry bases are actively seeking the extension and expansion of the industrial chain, and are committed to building competitive industrial clusters. In this process, the bases are laying out in various aspects, aiming at various links of the industry chain to realize a more comprehensive market coverage. The development of fluorine chemical industry has started from the expansion of single production capacity to the direction of refinement, diversification and sustainability. The output of fluorite associated ore comprehensive recycling, phosphorus by-product fluorine resource recycling, etc. continues to increase, and this transformation marks that the industry is shifting from quantitative growth to qualitative enhancement in order to adapt to the changes in market demand and improve competitiveness.